2019 Canadian federal election

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2019 Canadian federal election

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All 338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Justin Trudeau in 2019 at the G7 (Biarritz) (48622478973) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Andrew Scheer in Kingsclear (48859362463) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped).jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 October 1, 2017
Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Burnaby South
Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71%
Current seats 177 95 39
Seats needed Steady Increase75 Increase131

  Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg Elizabeth May in July 2014.jpg Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party Bloc Québécois Green People's
Leader since January 17, 2019 August 27, 2006 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Running in Beloeil—Chambly Saanich—Gulf Islands Beauce
Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45% Pre-creation
Current seats 10 2 1
Seats needed Increase160[1] Increase168 Increase169

Canada Election 2019 Results Map.svg
Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested

Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 2019 Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. Governor General Julie Payette dissolved the 42nd Parliament on September 11, 2019, on the advice of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the traditional action that commences an election.

The 40-day campaign will see the incumbent Liberals attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2015 election. The Conservative Party, under Andrew Scheer, the New Democratic Party under Jagmeet Singh, the Green Party under Elizabeth May and the People's Party under Maxime Bernier will contest the in-power, Liberal government.

Background[edit]

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs-twelve- for official party status. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet.[2] After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018,[3] and was succeeded by Yves-François Blanchet on January 17, 2019.[4]

Tom Mulcair was rejected as NDP party leader; he gained only 48% of the vote at the NDP's April 2016 leadership review. The party held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as Mulcair's successor.[5][6]

Presses de l'Université Laval assessment of Justin Trudeau's Government[edit]

An impartial, academically-edited publication, Assessing Justin Trudeau's Liberal Government: 353 Promises and a Mandate for Change, published by Les Presses de l'Université Laval, (Laval University Press), found that Justin Trudeau's Liberal government kept 92 percent of pledges, when complete and partial pledges were added together, while the Harper government kept 85 percent of complete and partial pledges. When only completed, realized pledges were calculated, Harper's government, in their last year, kept 77 percent of promises while the Liberal government kept 53.5 percent. The book notes that Harper's pledges tended towards transactional pledges which target sub-populations while Trudeau's government's promises were transformative. Trudeau's government, according to the researchers, and the "last Harper government had the highest rates of follow-through on their campaign promises of any Canadian government over the last 35 years." The book's intent was to provide a non-partisan driven view of Canadian politicians and governments since despite the fact that Canadian politicians have shown to be good at keeping promises Canadians tend to be biased, thinking all politicians are liars.[7][8]

Bill C-44[edit]

Bill C-44 was passed in 2017 and assigned responsibility to the Parliamentary Budget Office to calculate the cost of party platforms for elections; the review will be available in the 2019 election. The Parliamentary Budget Office has a $500,000 budget for costing party platforms for this election, but will only review a party platform at the request of the party that authored it. It will also conduct confidential assessments of independent and party platform proposals preceding the election campaign. The service will also be available to members of parliament representing a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons, like Elizabeth May's Green Party.[9]

Electoral reform[edit]

In June 2015, Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."[10][11] As the Liberals, New Democrats, Bloc Québécois, and Green Party were all in favour of reform, a different voting system could have been in place by the next federal election.[12]

A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. The majority of the all-party committee recommended "that the government should, as it develops a new electoral system ... [seek to] minimize the level of distortion between the popular will of the electorate and the resultant seat allocations in Parliament."[13][14]

The mandate of the committee was to "identify and conduct a study of viable alternate voting systems" rather than to recommend a specific alternative system.[15] The Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef was critical of the committee's recommendation saying "I have to admit I'm a little disappointed, because what we had hoped the committee would provide us with would be a specific alternative system to first past the post." Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose said Monsef's comments were "a disgrace" and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said "[t]he minister chose to insult the committee and chose to mislead Canadians."[13]

In February 2017, Trudeau dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, saying that, "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. ... Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate."[16] In response to questions from the public in Iqaluit, Trudeau said "It is because I felt it was not in the best interests of our country and of our future," citing concerns that alternative electoral systems would give too much power to "extremist and activist voices" that could create "instability and uncertainty" dividing the country.[17]

Endorsements[edit]

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Green PPC No endorsement
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations

Results[edit]

- - - - - -
Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green People's

Detailed analysis[edit]

e • d Summary of the 2019 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2015 Dissol. 2019 % change
from 2015
% seats Votes Vote
change
% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338 184 177
Conservative Andrew Scheer 338[a] 99 95
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338 44 39
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 10 10
Green Elizabeth May 338[b] 1 2
People's Maxime Bernier 335 N/A 1
  Independent and no affiliation 125 0 8[c]
Christian Heritage Rod Taylor 51 0 0
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 50 0 0
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 39 0 0
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 30 0 0
Veterans Coalition Randy David Joy 25 0 0
Libertarian Tim Moen 24 0 0
Animal Alliance Liz White (activist) 17 0 0
Pour l'Indépendance du Québec Michel Blondin 13 0 0
Canada's Fourth Front Partap Dua 7 0 0
Marijuana Blair Longley 4 0 0
National Citizens Alliance Stephen J. Garvey 4 0 0
The United Party Carlton Darby 4 0 0
Canadian Nationalist Travis Patron 3 0 0
Progressive Canadian Joe Hueglin 3 0 0
Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 0 0
Co-operative Commonwealth N/A 0 0 1 N/A
  Vacant 0 5 N/A
Total 2146 338 338 338 100% 100%
Source: Elections Canada (Final results)

Election campaign[edit]

Liberal[edit]

The Parliament of Canada's Ethics Commissioner, Mario Dion, found that Trudeau improperly influenced then Minister of Justice and Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in an ongoing criminal case against Quebec-based construction company SNC-Lavalin.[32] The Trudeau government has maintained that there was no undue pressure or law broken, that offering SNC-Lavalin a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) could save jobs, and that the controversy resulted from a misunderstanding and an "erosion of trust". The affair became public in February 2019, shortly after Wilson-Raybould had been shuffled to another cabinet position. Wilson-Raybould resigned from cabinet later that day. This was followed by the resignation of cabinet minister Jane Philpott, over the government's handling of the affair. In April, Wilson-Raybould and Philpott were expelled by Trudeau from the Liberal caucus; Trudeau cited concerns for division in and subsequent weakening of the Liberal party. On April 2, 2019, Wilson-Raybould, as Liberal candidate for Vancouver Granville, and Philpott, as Liberal candidate for Markham—Stouffville, were deselected as candidates.[33]

In late August 2019, Party deputy leader Ralph Goodale, Liberal candidate for Regina—Wascana, Lawrence MacAulay, candidate for Cardigan, and Francis Scarpaleggia, candidate for Lac-Saint-Louis, were singled out for their opposition to same-sex marriage. Pundits argued that Goodale was being hypocritical, due to his role with Scheer and the same-sex marriage incident.[34][35] Goodale later stated that he had evolved on the position and wanted answers from Scheer. [36]

On August 30, 2019, Hassan Guillet, Liberal candidate for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, was dropped as a candidate following allegations of anti-Semitic comments from B'nai B'rith.[37] Guillet's nomination previously raised concern that his ethnicity would be out of place in the majority Italian riding.[38] Guillet denied the allegation, alleged that the Liberals were aware of the post, and that they "imposed" his replacement Patricia Lattanzio, on the riding.[39] On September 20, 2019, Guillet announced he would run as an Independent.[40]

Sameer Zuberi, Liberal candidate for Pierrefonds—Dollard, was nominated on September 15, 2019 despite questioning Osama bin Laden's involvement in 9/11 in a social media post.[41] Zuberi called the accusations false saying it was an attempt by the Conservatives to deflect attention away from their own candidates with extremist or white supremacist leanings.[42]

On September 18, 2019, L'Express of Drummondville reported that the Liberal candidate for Drummond, William Morales' nomination victory was attended by two convicted criminals. Morales said that while he maintains contact with Spanish-speaking members from the Drummondville community the two people were not involved in his campaign and he does not have close relations with them.[43] He later told his local newspaper that he interacts with members regardless of their background.[44]

On September 18, 2019, Trudeau attracted controversy for a photograph published in Time magazine, in which he wore brownface makeup to a party at West Point Grey Academy, where he was a teacher, in 2001. Trudeau called it a mistake and apologized publicly for it.[45][46] When apologizing, Trudeau also confessed to having worn similar makeup in high-school.[47] Following his apology, an earlier instance from the early 1990s of Trudeau wearing blackface makeup was uncovered.[48][47] The following day, Trudeau apologized again and said he's "not that person anymore".[49][50][51] He also said that we shouldn't call it "makeup" but blackface, which is something bad and racist.[50] Some commentators labelled this hypocritical, since the Liberals have recently exposed the past misdeeds of some Conservative candidates.[52][53] However, after the scandal, Trudeau was defended by members of minorities, minority community groups, racialized commentators and some his opponents.[54][55][56][57][58][59] Later, Trudeau announced that he wanted to apologize personally to Jagmeet Singh, who replied that he will only meet Trudeau for an apology if it's "politics-free" and private.[60] Following the announcement, Singh received a call from Trudeau on September 24, 2019 and they talked privately for 15 to 20 minutes.[61] In the days following the scandal, pollsters pointed out that the majority of Canadians either were not bothered by the scandal or had accepted Trudeau's apology.[62][63]

On September 23, 2019, Del Arnold, Liberal candidate for Calgary Shepard, apologized to Conservative rival Tom Kmiec after spreading misleading information about his place of residence. Arnold has not apologized for a deleted tweet that accused Andrew Scheer of having links to "white supremacy" and the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Virginia.[64]

On September 28, 2019, Judy Sgro, Liberal candidate for Humber River—Black Creek, made remarks during an interview with a radio network called GBKM FM defending Trudeau's wearing of brownface/blackface makeup: "Those in the black community have told me how much more love they have for the prime minister, that he wanted to have a black face. That he took great pride in that, too". She later apologized for her remarks, saying that “the comments I made on GBKM FM were insensitive,” and further adding “I should have known better, and I apologize”.[65][66][67]

On October 13, 2019, due to a security threat, Trudeau appeared 90 minutes late to a campaign rally. Trudeau took extraordinary security precautions at the event. He wore a bulletproof vest and was surrounded by heavily armed security personnel. His wife was also supposed to introduce him, but she did not appear on stage. The Liberal Party did not reveal the nature of the threat.[68][69][70] Scheer and Singh both showed concern for Trudeau following the threat.[69][71] The following day, the RCMP was still with the Liberal leader.[72] Furthermore, Trudeau explained that he followed advice from the RCMP and that this event will not change the way he campaigns.[71][73]

On October 14, 2019, Trudeau dodged multiple questions about a possible coalition with the NDP in a minority scenario. He responded that he remains focused on winning a majority.[74][75]

Conservative[edit]

In about one year after he assumed office, polling has shown that Ontario Premier Doug Ford is deeply unpopular – in some cases even less popular than the previous Premier when she lost power,[76][77][78] which could deter voters from voting for Scheer.[79][80] This has worried CPC insiders and prompted the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario to call an extended recess of the provincial legislature to reduce negative news coverage, in order to help the federal Tories.[81][78] However, if they lose the election, Scheer will blame it on Ford during his leadership review.[78] Therefore, leading up to the campaign, Andrew Scheer has distanced himself from Ford and later campaigned without him.[82][83] Meanwhile, the Liberals and Scheer's opponents have tried to capitalize on Ford's unpopularity by linking Scheer to the Premier multiple times.[84][85][86]

Several CPC candidates were dropped leading to and during the course of the campaign. On April 25, 2019, Harzadan Khattra, the candidate for Dufferin—Caledon, was disqualified after a fellow contestant sent the party verifiable information about "membership buying, improper voting, and other concerns".[87] On June 28, 2019, Salim Mansur, the candidate for London North Centre, was disqualified over alleged fears that the Liberals would characterize Mansur's record as Islamophobic.[88] On July 10, 2019, Mark King, the candidate for Nipissing-Timiskaming, was stripped of his nomination for disputed reasons.[89][90] On September 12, 2019, Cameron Ogilvie, Conservative candidate for Winnipeg North, resigned as a candidate after the party became aware of withheld social media post which the Conservative Party described as "discriminatory".[91] On October 4, 2019, the party announced that Heather Leung, the candidate for Burnaby North—Seymour, was dropped as reports surfaced of her making anti-LGBTQ comments in a video from 2011.[92][93] Due to the deadline for naming candidates having passed her name will still be on the ballot.[94][93] If she were to win, she wouldn't sit in the party's caucus.[95] Questions were raised as to why it took the party so long to remove her, since she was "a known commodity" when she was nominated.[96][97] She had made anti-LGBTQ and anti-abortion comments in the past and ignored the media for months.[98][97][99] Her riding association had also been criticized for their controversial social media posts.[98][93] On October 10, 2019, Leung claimed she was misunderstood and that her comments were lost in translation since English is her third language. However, she did not apologize for her comments.[100]

On July 10, 2019, Cyma Musarat, Conservative candidate for Pickering-Uxbridge, faced an allegation from fellow party members that she won her nomination by using improper voting procedures.[101] The Conservative Party faced an accusation that its headquarters had been delaying the nomination contest to find a different candidate.[102] From July 24 to September 15, 2019, Ghada Melek attracted attention. This conservative candidate for Mississauga—Streetsville, was revealed by former organizers of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, after it was revealed that rejected as a candidate in the provincial riding over social-media posts about Muslim extremism.[103] National Council of Canadian Muslims had issues over Melek's social media posts about Islam and LGBT+ community.[104] Scheer accepted an apology she issued for her comments.[105] Later, CTV News obtained her provincial vetting report and her promotion of conspiracy theories was seen as another factor behind her disqualification.[106] When asked about the provincial party red-flagging Melek, Scheer defended her again.[107]

On August 22, 2019, Scheer faced questions over an 2005 online video in which he spoke against same-sex marriage[108] Scheer himself did not respond until a press conference a week later where he argued that Trudeau was raising a wedge issue;[109] Several pundits had an issue with his response.[110][110][111] Weeks later, Scheer was asked if he needed to apologize for his comments giving the standards he set for his candidates; however he gave no response.[112] After Trudeau's apology regarding blackface, Scheer was asked again if he should apologize for his words; he gave no response.[113][114] Scheer once again chose to not answer the question directly on popular Quebec talk show Tout le monde en parle. He said that he supports the law and the rights of Canadians, but that he will not walk in Pride parades.[115]

Between August 26 and 30, 2019, the Conservatives were questioned on abortion. Alain Rayes, Scheer's Quebec lieutenant, attracted attention after he told a Quebec radio station that he misspoke on the party stance on abortion.[116] A few days later, Scheer held a press conference, where he addressed the issue. However, his answers were seen as confusing in the media, and anti-abortion activists found his answers to be mixed-messaging.[117][118] A day later, Scheer said that he and his cabinet would vote against anti-abortion bills if the debate is re-opened.[119] Scheer reiterated this statement on Tout le monde en parle.[115] A day after his rivals pushed him to clarify his position during the TVA debate, Scheer mentioned that he was pro-life but reiterated what he said in the past concerning anti-abortion bills.[120][121]

On September 12, 2019, Rachel Wilson, Conservative candidate for York Centre, attracted attention after a video was posted online that called for pro-life legislation.[122] Wilson did not comment when asked about abortion legislation.[123] On September 13, 2019, Arpan Khanna, Conservative candidate for Brampton North, apologized after it was revealed that offhandedly used a homophobic slur to tease a friend.[124] On September 14, 2019, Justina McCaffrey, Conservative candidate for Kanata—Carleton, attracted attention for making negative remarks in a video about Justin Trudeau and Francophones, and her relationship with Faith Goldy.[125] She departed a campaign event when confronted by reporters, but later released a statement apologizing for her comments and later stated that her relationship with Goldy ended a longtime ago.[125][126] However, there were pictures of the two together in 2017 – one of them featured Goldy doing the "OK sign".[127][128][129] Conservative campaign manager Hamish Marshall's past role as a director of Rebel Media was also questioned, since Goldy was an on-screen personality before being fired.[130][131] On October 7, 2019, the Canadian Press discovered that McCaffrey was a member of the controversial religious group Opus Dei. The CPC's spokesperson responded by saying that they do not question their candidates about their personal religious beliefs.[132]

On September 28, 2019, The Globe and Mail revealed that they found no record of Scheer receiving the licence required by law to work as an insurance agent or broker in Saskatchewan despite him claiming so in the past.[133][134][135] Robert Fife, the Ottawa bureau chief for The Globe, explained that Scheer was an insurance clerk.[136] Scheer responded by saying that he did receive his accreditation, but that he left the insurance office before the licensing process was finalized.[135][137] Later, the Insurance Brokers Association of Saskatchewan said that Scheer completed just one of four required courses to become an insurance broker. The IBAS declined to comment further and said that a formal complaint had been launched by Liberal MP Marco Mendicino to the General Insurance Council of Saskatchewan.[138][139]

On October 11, 2019, the CBC filed an application in the Federal Court of Canada against the Conservative party over the use of television excerpts in partisan advertising. They claimed the party's use of excerpts violated the "moral rights" of news anchor Rosemary Barton and reporter John Paul Tasker. The action was brought despite the material having been taken down from websites and deleted from Twitter. The CBC said that it was given no reassurance that such use would not be repeated. The lawsuit says that the use of the material in a partisan way "diminishes the reputation" of the CBC and leaves it open to allegations that it is biased.[140][141][142][143]

On October 14, 2019, Scheer ruled out any coalition or negotiations with the Bloc Québécois. He said that he "does not need to work with the Bloc Québécois to deliver results for Quebec" and that he can work with Quebec Premier François Legault to deliver them.[144][75] On October 16, 2019, Scheer said that the party with most seats should have the right to form government.[145][146] A day later, he stood by his claim and added that is what has happened in modern history. Journalists pointed out that it was not the case and gave examples such as the 2018 New Brunswick general election and the 2017 British Columbia general election.[147][148][149][150]

New Democratic Party[edit]

NDP candidates were dropped or stepped down during the course of the campaign. On June 20, 2019, Rana Zaman, candidate for Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, was dropped over comments about the Israeli–Palestinian conflict that the party deemed "unacceptable".[151]

On August 16, 2019, Pierre Nantel, candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, was de-selected after reports surfaced of ongoing discussions regarding Nantel joining the Green Party of Canada.[152] On September 11, 2019, Dock Currie, candidate for Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, was forced to resign over "flippant and aggressive" comments he made toward pro-pipeline activists.[153] The next day, Olivier Mathieu, candidate for Lasalle-Emard-Verdun, stepped down following allegations of physical abuse against his ex-spouse.[154]

During the election, Jagmeet Singh has faced questions about wearing of a turban and whether that would reduce the number of people who would vote for him. Jonathan Richardson, the former federal NDP's executive member for Atlantic Canada, who defected to the Green Party, stated in an interview with CBC Radio, that some potential NDP candidates were hesitant to run in New Brunswick, due to Singh's turban.[155] CTV News covered a Singh event in Verner, Ontario and spoke to a number of voters there, including NDP supporters, who said that they would not vote for a leader wearing a turban.[156] CBC News found a similar reaction in Ruth Ellen Brosseau's riding.[157] Singh responded to these concerns. He explained some things about his turban and recorded a French ad without it to alleviate people's worries.[158][159] Furthermore, according to Alexandre Boulerice, the party's Deputy Leader and Quebec lieutenant, the NDP is targeting young voters and they don't care about the turban.[160]

On October 2, 2019, a man told Singh to cut off his turban to look more Canadian during a campaign stop. He politely responded Canadians "look like all sorts of people" before walking off.[161][162]

During the campaign, Singh talked about what he would do in a minority. On August 22, 2019, due to the controversy over Scheer's previous comments about same-sex marriage, he announced that the NDP would not support a Conservative minority government under any circumstances.[163] On September 22, 2019, Singh announced that despite Trudeau's past brownface and blackface incidents, he would not rule out working with the Liberals in a minority scenario.[164] On October 10, 2019, he laid out the conditions for NDP support in a minority Parliament : a national single-payer universal pharmacare plan, a national dental care plan, investments in housing, a plan to waive interest on student loans, a commitment to reduce emissions, to end subsidies for oil companies and to deliver aid to oilpatch workers to transition them out of fossil fuel industries, the introduction of a "super wealth" tax, a commitment to closing tax loopholes and reducing cellphone bills. He later added that changing the way the country votes is also a condition (Singh's NDP backs a system of mixed-member proportional representation).[165][166] He also added that he doesn't rule out supporting a pipeline-owning Liberal minority government.[167] On October 13, 2019, Singh said he would "do whatever it takes" to keep the Tories from power, including forming a coalition government with the Liberals. He added that he is "ready to work with anyone", when he was asked about the Bloc.[168][169] The following day, Singh backed off those comments and urged Canadians to vote NDP in order to receive the best services like universal pharmacare and dental care.[75][170][171]

Bloc Québécois[edit]

On August 9, 2019, Andre Parizeau, Bloc candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, created attention over his past communist affiliations as the leader of Parti communiste du Québec (PCQ).[172] Parizeau disavowed the PCQ in order to be accepted as candidate.[173]

In October 2019, the Bloc Québécois called on Quebeckers to vote for candidates "who resemble you" (" des gens qui nous ressemblent ") in the election, prompting NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to denounce the message as unacceptable and divisive. In his closing statement during Wednesday's French-language debate, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet called on voters to "opt for men and women who resemble you, who share your values, who share your concerns and who work for your interests, and only for the interests of Quebeckers." The Bloc has said the comment has nothing to do with someone's background or religion but with Québécois values.[174][175][176][177] During the English debate, Blanchet called the translation of his words dishonest and mentioned that the same words were used by Igniatieff in 2011 and Mulcair in 2015.[178]

On October 10, 2019, Le Journal de Montréal discovered that four BQ candidates had made anti-Islam and racist social media posts.[179][180] A Bloc spokeswoman said it was up to Quebeckers to judge its candidates’ social-media posts.[180] The comments were condemned by Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh, Mélanie Joly and Françoise David.[181] Later, the candidates all posted the same apology on their respective social media accounts and Yves-François Blanchet apologized for his candidates' Islamophobic and racist social media posts.[182][183]

On October 13, 2019, Blanchet announced that they will not support a coalition or a party in a minority scenario. The Bloc will go issue by issue and support what is best for Quebec.[184][185]

Green Party[edit]

Several GPC candidates were dropped or stepped down during the course of the campaign. On July 23, 2019, Brock Grills, Green candidate for Peterborough—Kawartha, stepped down for "personal reasons". Grills was accused of fraud by an former employer but he and the EDA president stated that accusation was not the reason behind his stepping down. Grills, who repeated his reasoning, also mentioned the Green party central office "pushed" for his resignation because he was reaching out to other parties to ask them to adopt policies to curb climate change.[186] On August 16, 2019, Luc Saint-Hilaire, Green candidate for Lévis—Lotbinière, was forced to resign because of a Facebook post demanding Boufeldja Benabdallah, co-founder of the Centre Culturel Islamique de Québec, to denounce a man who allegedly lit his ex-wife on fire.[187] On September 12, 2019, Erik Schomann, Green candidate for Simcoe North, resigned over a 2007 Facebook post which appeared to suggest he wanted to mail pieces of a pig carcass to Muslims in support of the protesters during the Muhammed comic controversy.[188]

On September 9, 2019, the Green Party issued a statement insisting that there is "zero chance" of reopening the abortion debate; few hours after May stated the Green Party will not ban members from trying to reopen abortion debate in an interview.[189] May later added that MPs risk being ousted if they move to reopen the debate.[190] From September 10 to 16, 2019, attention was focused on Pierre Nantel, the candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert. He created this attention over his comments about Québec separatism on a Quebec radio station. May disputed that Nantel was a Quebec sovereigntist, but Nantel contradicted her afterwards.[191] However, May stated he could be still be a candidate.[192] Some journalists and columnists were confused by her reasoning for keeping him as a candidate.[193][194] Furthermore, May was asked by the son of the late Jack Layton to not use the latter for political points when defending Nantel.[195] On September 10, 2019, Mark Vercouteren, the candidate for Chatham-Kent-Leamington, and Macarena Diab, the candidate for Louis-Hébert were revealed to have made "anti-abortion statements".[196] A spokesperson defended both of them but a few days later, it was revealed by May that Vercoutern was being "re-vetted" over the party not noticing Vercouteren's questionnaires.[192] A week after the original comments were revealed, Vercouteren stated his view aligned with the party.[197] On September 12, 2019, Dale Dewar, Green candidate for Regina—Qu'Appelle, apologized for making past negative comments on social media about Israel, Zionism and Israelis.[198]

Starting on September 23, 2019, the GPC drew scrutiny around the world for manipulating a picture of Elizabeth May to make it seem as if she was using a reusable cup and metal straw instead of a disposable cup.[199][200][201] When she was on Tout le monde en parle, May clarified that the original photo featured a compostable cup; the picture was modified to add the GPC's logo. She did admit that it was ridiculous that a staffer modified the picture.[202]

Leading up to and during the campaign, May talked about what she would do in a minority. On September 3, 2019, she announced that she would not be prepared to prop up any minority government of the major parties given current climate plans.[203] Later, on September 26, 2019, May announced that the GPC would not prop up a minority government that moves forward with the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.[204]

People's Party[edit]

In February 2019, LaPresse discovered that Martin Masse, the PPC's spokesperson, had written controversial blog posts in the past.[205] The Star discovered that four members of the PPC had used racist and anti-immigrant rhetoric. They were removed from the party as a result.[206][207] Bernier himself has been accused multiple times of using dog-whistle politics.[208][207][209] Bernier responded to this by saying racists are not welcome in his party and acknowledging that Canada is a diverse country.[210][207] Later, Maxime Bernier generated a reaction after a photograph of him with members of an anti-immigration group surfaced online.[211][212] Bernier told the media that everyone is welcome at his events, that he is unaware of their views, that he would condemn them if the media could show that they were racists and that racists were not welcome in his party, but experts were skeptical of Bernier and thought that he was well aware of who was attending.[212] A few weeks later, he was also reprimanded for being photographed with Paul Fromm. A spokesperson stated that Bernier had no idea who Fromm was, but once again experts were skeptical of the explanation.[213][214][215] On September 23, 2019, news sites revealed that one of the PPC's founding members was a White nationalist and two others had ties to Anti-immigration groups.[216][217] One of those founding members – an former American Neo-Nazi leader – was volunteering for the party. He was also a member of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.[218] He was removed from the party on August 29, 2019 after his past came to light.[219] The PPC's spokesperson said that it didn't come up during the vetting process since he came from the US. They later cited to Global News that his removal was an example of the Party taking a stand against racism.[220] The party told Le Devoir that they did not have enough resources to vet them at the beginning of the PPC 's formation and the two other members denied having racist views.[221]

On July 30, 2019, Cody Payant, People's candidate for Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek, attracted attention for a social media post defending Lindsay Shepherd. Payant argue that it was taken out of context. Bernier defended Payant after he spoke to Payant and was satisfied with his explanation.[222] On September 2, 2019, Maxime Bernier called Greta Thunberg "mentally unstable" on Twitter.[223] A few days later, he backtracked his comments stating his intention was to criticize her role as "a spokesperson for climate alarmism" and did not mean to denigrate her.[224] On September 18, 2019, Steven Fletcher, People's candidate for Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, denied allegations for illegally using campaign signs and voter data from the Conservative Party. Fletcher also suggested that the move was political motivated from the Conservative and took issues to the fact that the letter was leaked online.[225] On September 19, 2019, Nancy Mercier, People's candidate for Beauséjour, raised concern from local organizations over comments about Islamism and immigration Mercier indicated her concerns are with Islamic terrorism and not members of any race.[226] On October 10, 2019, Sybil Hogg, the candidate for Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, came under fire for a series of anti-Islam tweets callng Islam "pure evil" and for the religion to be banned in Canada. The PPC's executive director reached out to her to understand the context and Hogg explained that she failed to draw the distinction between "Islam" and "Islamism" or "radical Islam". She added that her concern was radical Islam and not Islam. Due to the response, the PPC said they won't take action against her. Later, Bernier called the tweets "absolutely racist and Islamophobic" and confirmed that she won't face consequences.[227][228][229]

Candidates who were dropped or stepped down: On September 6, 2019, Ken Pereira, People's candidate for Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, stepped down because of a "terrible family tragedy". When announced as the candidate, Pereira had attracted attention for his online "anti-vaccine" and "pro-conspiracy theory" posts and was defended by the party.[230] On September 12, 2019, Brian Misera, People's candidate for Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, claimed that he was removed for asking Bernier to denounce racism more clearly in a online video posted on Misera's Twitter account. However, the PPC stated that Misera was removed after he allegedly admitted to the party that he was his own financial agent, a violation of Elections Canada rules.[231] Yet a statement of Misera's disqualification obtained by City News made no reference to the PPC's claim or Misera's claim.[232] On September 30, 2019, Chad Hudson, People's Party candidate for the Nova Scotia riding of West Nova, tweeted that he would no longer be running for the party, less than two hours before Elections Canada's deadline for candidates to officially register to be on the ballot. He criticized the party and its leadership for being "divisive", as well as "bad for democracy" and contributors to the "toxic state of politics". Hudson, later admitted that he did not notify the party of his decision.[233] On October 8, 2019, Victor Ong the People's Party of Canada candidate in Winnipeg North resigned after deciding the party is "racist and intolerant".[234][235]

Third party organizations[edit]

On August 19, 2019, environmental groups were warned by Elections Canada that any third party that promotes information about climate change during the election period with paid advertising could be engaging in partisan activity.[236] Registered charities with a charitable tax status would be required to register as a third party for the election if they engaged in any partisan activity incurring $500, which would include advertising and surveys, or risk their charitable tax status.[237] These regulations were a result of People's Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier expressing doubts about the legitimacy of climate change, because a third party that advertises the dangers of climate change during the election period may be considered to be indirectly advocating against the People's Party.[237] After confusion about the warning, Elections Canada released a public statement to clarify that the prohibition applied only to advertising, not speech in general the following day.[238]

On August 25, 2019, billboards purchased by a True North Strong & Free Advertising Corp., a third party promoting the People's Party of Canada's immigration policy, with the text "Say NO to Mass Immigration" appeared in Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, and Halifax. True North Strong & Free Advertising Corp is run by Frank Smeenk, the chief executive of a Toronto-based mining exploration company. The Peoples Party of Canada told the media that it had no contact with the group.[239] Initially, Pattison Outdoor Advertising defended the billboards, arguing that they complied with the Advertising Standards Canada Code[240] but later decided to pull them and said that they would review their protocols on advocacy advertising.[241] The Pattison president later revealed that the billboards would have stayed up had True North Strong & Free identified themselves on the billboards and how the public could get in touch with them.[242]

Fact-checking[edit]

During the Maclean's debate, Scheer said that refugees were "jumping the queue". Journalists called this a false statement and one expert explained that "there is no queue".[243][244]

On September 17, 2019, Brock Harrison, Scheer's director of communication, and the CPC tweeted that the RCMP had confirmed Trudeau was under investigation for SNC-Lavalin. Scheer himself also repeated the allegation. Both tweets were removed after journalists deemed it to be false.[245][246]

A claim was circulating online that Bill Morneau was related to RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki through her husband, which is what was stopping the RCMP investigation regarding SNC-Lavalin. The claim is false; Lucki's husband isn't related to Morneau.[247][248] Furthermore, there has been no confirmation that there is an RCMP investigation.[245][246]

Rumors were circulating online that there was a scandal that resulted in Justin Trudeau's departure from West Point Grey Academy. This was false. The rumor was propagated by fake news sites, gossip magazines, Warren Kinsella and Ezra Levant. Then, on October 7, 2019, the Conservatives issued a press release referencing the rumour and asking "why did Justin Trudeau leave West Point Grey Academy?". The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail devoted multiple reporters to the story and found nothing to corroborate it. The former headmaster also released a statement that said "there is no truth to any speculation that (Trudeau) was dismissed".[249][250][251]

Leaders' debates[edit]

The first debate was hosted by Maclean's and Citytv on September 12. Scheer, Singh and May participated. Trudeau declined his invitation.[252][253] An empty podium was left on stage for him.[254][255]

Two official debates were organized and held by the newly created Leaders' Debates Commission.[256] The English language debate took place on October 7 and the French on October 10.[257][258] Both debates took place at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Quebec.[257][259]

On August 12, 2019, the Commissioner extended invitations for Justin Trudeau, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet to attend. He also sent a letter to Maxime Bernier indicating that he did not qualify for the debates at that time, and asked for additional information from the People's Party so that a final decision could be reached by September 16.[260] Bernier criticized the decision saying that it would not be a "real debate" without him.[261] On September 16, the Commission announced that Bernier would be invited to attend the official debates.[262]

The government established rules in 2018 to determine which party leaders are invited to the official debates.[263][264] To be invited a party must satisfy two of the following:

  1. Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
  2. Nominate candidates to run in at least 90% of all ridings; and
  3. Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election or be considered by the commissioner to have a legitimate chance to win seats in the current election, based on public opinion polls.[263][264]

In November 2018, Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould said that Maxime Bernier would qualify for the debates as leader of the People's Party of Canada if the party nominated candidates in 90% of ridings.[265][258]

Debates and scheduled debates:

Subject Invited participants Date Organizer Location Notes
Economy, foreign policy, indigenous issues and the environment Liberals; Conservatives; NDP; Greens September 12, 2019 Maclean's and Citytv Toronto The debate was moderated by Paul Wells.[266] Scheer, Singh and May participated. Justin Trudeau did not attend.[267] An empty podium was left on stage for him.[254][255][268] The "At Issue" panel on CBC's The National, praised each of the three leaders' performances. The panel believed that Trudeau's re-election odds would not be negatively affected for missing the debate.[269] Following the debate, some of Mr. Scheer's comments were criticized as misleading, while another comment caused controversy relating to the rights of Indigenous people.[270][243][271]
Immigration, social policy, economy, environment, governance and the place of Quebec in Canada[272] Liberals; Conservatives, Bloc and NDP October 2, 2019 TVA Montreal This French language debate took place on October 2, 2019 and was hosted by the Quebec television network, TVA. It was moderated by Pierre Bruneau.[273] Trudeau committed to attending, after the date was moved forward from the originally scheduled date of October 16.[274][252][275] Neither Elizabeth May nor Maxime Bernier were invited due to them not having elected an MP under their respective parties' banners in Quebec.[274][276][272] Following the debate, political commentators praised the performances of Trudeau, Singh and Blanchet. The winner varied depending on the analyst, but they all agreed that Andrew Scheer did really poorly.[277][278][279][280] Furthermore, some of each leaders' comments were criticized as misleading.[281]
Affordability, economic insecurity, environment, energy, Indigenous issues, leadership in Canada and on the world stage, polarization, human rights, and immigration.[282] Liberals; Conservatives; Bloc; NDP; Greens; People's October 7, 2019 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau This English language debate was moderated by Rosemary Barton, Susan Delacourt, Dawna Friesen, Lisa LaFlamme and Althia Raj, each responsible for a portion of the debate.[257][256] It was produced by the Canadian Debate Production Partnership, consisting of: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, the Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'actualité.[258][259] All five major party leaders participated.[283] The Leader's Debate Commissioner initially determined Bernier did not meet the criteria for participating in the debate, but an invitation was later extended on September 16 after further documentation was submitted to the LDC.[260][262] Following the debate, some experts called the format a disaster.[284] Furthermore, some of the leader's comments were criticized as misleading.[285][286][287]
Economy, finances, environment, energy, foreign policy, immigration, identity, ethics, governance and service to citizens[282] Liberals; Conservatives; Bloc; NDP; Greens; People's October 10, 2019 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau This French language debate was moderated by Patrice Roy, who was assisted by several journalists from prominent Quebec newspapers.[257][256] It was produced by the newly formed Canadian Debate Production Partnership, which is made up of the following broadcasters and newspapers: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, the Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'actualité.[258][259] All five major party leaders participated.[283] The Leader's Debate Commissioner initially determined Bernier to not meet the criteria for participating in the debate, but an invitation was later extended on September 16 after further documentation was submitted to the LDC.[260][262]

Cancelled debates:

Subject Invited participants Date Organizer Location Notes
Foreign Policy Liberals; Conservatives; NDP; Greens October 1, 2019 Munk Debates Roy Thomson Hall, Toronto Munk Debates called for a bilingual leaders debate on foreign policy. Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May agreed to attend,[288][289] but Trudeau announced he would not attend.[252] Maxime Bernier was not invited.[290][291] Due to Trudeau not attending, the debate was cancelled.[292][293]
Climate Change Liberals; Conservatives; NDP; Greens October 16, 2019 The University of Ottawa's Smart Prosperity Institute and Climate Action Network Canada Ottawa On July 17, protesters gathered in cities across Canada calling for a leaders' debate to be held on the topic of climate change. The protests were directed at CBC News after organizers were told that broadcasters not the commission would determine the questions and topics of the debates. In response to the protests, the CBC released a statement saying that the commission and the editorial group at the broadcaster ultimately selected to host the debates would be responsible for making such determinations.[294][295][296][297] On August 8, 2019, organizers delivered a petition with 48,000 signatures to the CBC.[298] On September 9, 2019, invitations were sent out asking the Liberals, NDP, Greens and Conservatives to send any of their nominated candidates from across the country. The debate was cancelled because the Conservatives refused to participate.[299]

Parties and standings[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2015 federal election, and the standings at dissolution.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Justin Trudeau 39.47%
184 / 338
177 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Andrew Scheer 31.89%
99 / 338
95 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Jagmeet Singh 19.71%
44 / 338
39 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec sovereigntism
Social democracy
Yves-François Blanchet 4.66%
10 / 338
10 / 338
Green[d] Green politics
Green liberalism
Elizabeth May 3.45%
1 / 338
2 / 338
People's Anti-immigration
Conservatism
Libertarianism[300]
Classical liberalism
Populism
Maxime Bernier N/A
1 / 338
Co-operative Commonwealth[e] Social democracy N/A N/A
1 / 338
Independents[d] N/A N/A 0.28%
0 / 338
8 / 338
Vacant seats N/A N/A
5 / 338

Campaign slogans[edit]

Party English French Translation of French (unofficial)
Conservative Party "It's time for you to get ahead."[302] "Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant."[303] "More. For you. Starting now."
New Democratic Party "In it for you."[304] "Les progressistes : c’est nous"[305][f] "We are the progressives"
Liberal Party "Choose Forward"[306] "Choisir d'avancer"[307] "Choose to move forward"
Bloc Québécois
N/A
"Le Québec, c'est nous"[308] "Quebec, it's us" or "We are Quebec"
Green Party "Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together."[309] "L'urgence d'agir."[310][g] "The urgency to act."
People's Party "Strong & Free"[311] "Fort et libre" "Strong and free"

Incumbents not running for reelection[edit]

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

Timeline[edit]

Changes in seats held (2015–2019)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner March 23, 2016[354] Jim Hillyer  Conservative Death in office October 24, 2016[355] Glen Motz  Conservative
Nunavut May 31, 2016[356] Hunter Tootoo  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1]  Independent
Ottawa—Vanier August 16, 2016[357] Mauril Bélanger  Liberal Death in office April 3, 2017 Mona Fortier  Liberal
Calgary Heritage August 26, 2016[358] Stephen Harper  Conservative Resignation April 3, 2017 Bob Benzen  Conservative
Calgary Midnapore September 23, 2016[359] Jason Kenney  Conservative Resignation[a 2] April 3, 2017 Stephanie Kusie  Conservative
Saint-Laurent January 31, 2017[360] Stéphane Dion  Liberal Resignation[a 3] April 3, 2017 Emmanuella Lambropoulos  Liberal
Markham—Thornhill January 31, 2017 John McCallum  Liberal Resignation[a 4] April 3, 2017 Mary Ng  Liberal
Sturgeon River—Parkland July 4, 2017[361] Rona Ambrose  Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017 Dane Lloyd  Conservative
Lac-Saint-Jean August 9, 2017[362] Denis Lebel  Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017[363] Richard Hébert  Liberal
Calgary Skyview August 31, 2017[364] Darshan Kang  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 5]  Independent
Scarborough—Agincourt September 14, 2017[365] Arnold Chan  Liberal Death in office December 11, 2017[366] Jean Yip  Liberal
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity September 30, 2017[367] Judy Foote  Liberal Resignation[a 6] December 11, 2017 Churence Rogers  Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock September 30, 2017[368] Dianne Watts  Conservative Resignation[a 7] December 11, 2017 Gordon Hogg  Liberal
Battlefords—Lloydminster October 2, 2017[369] Gerry Ritz  Conservative Resignation December 11, 2017 Rosemarie Falk  Conservative
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord December 1, 2017[370] Denis Lemieux  Liberal Resignation June 18, 2018[371] Richard Martel  Conservative
Terrebonne February 28, 2018[372][373] Michel Boudrias  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018[374]  Bloc Québécois
Rivière-du-Nord February 28, 2018 Rhéal Fortin  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[375]  Bloc Québécois
Mirabel February 28, 2018 Simon Marcil  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018  Bloc Québécois
Repentigny February 28, 2018 Monique Pauzé  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[375]  Bloc Québécois
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel February 28, 2018 Louis Plamondon  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[375]  Bloc Québécois
Joliette February 28, 2018 Gabriel Ste-Marie  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[375]  Bloc Québécois
Montcalm February 28, 2018 Luc Thériault  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[375]  Bloc Québécois
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes May 2, 2018[376] Gord Brown  Conservative Death in office December 3, 2018[377] Michael Barrett  Conservative
Regina—Lewvan May 3, 2018[378] Erin Weir  New Democratic Removed from caucus[a 8] May 11, 2018[379]  CCF
Outremont August 3, 2018[380] Tom Mulcair  New Democratic Resignation February 25, 2019[381] Rachel Bendayan  Liberal
Beauce August 23, 2018[382] Maxime Bernier  Conservative Resigned from caucus September 14, 2018  People's
Burnaby South September 14, 2018[383] Kennedy Stewart  New Democratic Resignation[a 9] February 25, 2019[381] Jagmeet Singh  New Democratic
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill September 17, 2018[384] Leona Alleslev  Liberal Changed affiliation  Conservative
York—Simcoe September 30, 2018[385] Peter Van Loan  Conservative Resignation February 25, 2019[381] Scot Davidson  Conservative
Parry Sound—Muskoka November 7, 2018[386] Tony Clement  Conservative Resigned from caucus[a 10]  Independent
Brampton East November 30, 2018[387] Raj Grewal  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 11]  Independent
Nanaimo—Ladysmith January 2, 2019[388] Sheila Malcolmson  New Democratic Resigned[a 12] May 6, 2019[389] Paul Manly  Green
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel January 29, 2019[390] Nicola Di Iorio  Liberal Resignation
Kings—Hants February 10, 2019[391] Scott Brison  Liberal Resignation
Whitby March 20, 2019[392] Celina Caesar-Chavannes  Liberal Resigned from caucus  Independent
Markham—Stouffville April 2, 2019[393] Jane Philpott  Liberal Removed from caucus[a 13]  Independent
Vancouver Granville April 2, 2019[393] Jody Wilson-Raybould  Liberal Removed from caucus[a 13]  Independent
Langley—Aldergrove June 20, 2019 Mark Warawa  Conservative Death in office[a 14]
Calgary Forest Lawn August 2, 2019 Deepak Obhrai  Conservative Death in office[a 14]
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert August 16, 2019[394][395] Pierre Nantel  New Democratic Removed from caucus[a 15] August 16, 2019[395]  Independent
  1. ^ to seek treatment for addiction
  2. ^ in order to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta
  3. ^ becoming Ambassador to the European Union
  4. ^ becoming Ambassador to China
  5. ^ amid allegations of sexual harassment
  6. ^ former Minister of Public Services and Procurement
  7. ^ following her entrance into the 2018 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election
  8. ^ over harassment allegations
  9. ^ to run for Mayor of Vancouver
  10. ^ as a result of a sexting scandal
  11. ^ to seek treatment for a gambling addiction
  12. ^ to run for the provincial district of Nanaimo
  13. ^ a b amid the SNC-Lavalin affair
  14. ^ a b dies due to cancer, while serving as a Conservative MP
  15. ^ will run for Greens in 2019 Canadian federal election

2015[edit]

2016[edit]

2017[edit]

2018[edit]

2019[edit]

Possible target seats[edit]

The following lists identify and rank seats by the margin by which the party's candidate finished behind the winning candidate in the 2015 election. The groupings are also subdivided by the perceived safety of the winning party's margin: Marginal (<=5%), Fairly Marginal (>5%, <=10%), and Fairly Safe (>10%, <=15%). Because of this methodology, the same seat may appear in multiple lists. For the electoral swing needed to gain the seat, divide the margin by 2.

For information purposes only, seats that have changed hands through subsequent byelections have been noted. Seats whose members have changed party allegiance are ignored.

     = appears in two lists (suggesting a three-way race)
     = appears in three lists (suggesting a four-way race)
Possible target seats by party (with winning parties and margins from the 2015 Canadian federal election)
Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Marginal
1 Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 0.17% 1 Elmwood—Transcona 0.14% 1 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord[a 1] 1.37%
2 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 0.27% 2 Edmonton Mill Woods 0.18% 2 Mirabel 1.41%
3 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 0.36% 3 Regina—Lewvan 0.27% 3 St. John's East 1.44%
4 Kitchener—Conestoga 0.53% 4 Kootenay—Columbia 0.45% 4 Kenora 1.62%
5 Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 0.56% 5 Hastings—Lennox and Addington 0.45% 5 Parkdale—High Park 1.80%
6 Jonquière 0.71% 6 Calgary Centre 1.22% 6 Québec 1.86%
7 Hochelaga 0.96% 7 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 2.15% 7 Rivière-du-Nord 1.91%
8 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 1.10% 8 Edmonton Centre 2.24% 8 Toronto—Danforth 2.17%
9 Burnaby South 1.19% 9 Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon 2.32% 9 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 2.89%
10 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 1.21% 10 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge 2.49% 10 Davenport 2.90%
11 Salaberry—Suroît 1.25% 11 Newmarket—Aurora 2.57% 11 Saint-Jean 4.09%
12 Trois-Rivières 1.60% 12 Kildonan—St. Paul 2.82% 12 Ottawa Centre 4.12%
13 Beloeil—Chambly 1.73% 13 Whitby 2.86% 13 Niagara Centre 4.19%
14 Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola 2.35% 14 York Centre 2.89% 14 Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge 4.26%
15 Calgary Confederation 2.38% 15 Northumberland—Peterborough South 2.95% 15 Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 4.30%
16 Hamilton Mountain 2.40% 16 King—Vaughan 3.18% 16 Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo 4.48%
17 South Surrey—White Rock[a 2] 2.54% 17 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam 3.28% 17 Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 4.79%
18 Richmond Centre 2.85% 18 Oakville North—Burlington 3.41% 18 Lac-Saint-Jean[a 3] 4.81%
19 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 3.04% 19 Burlington 3.50% Fairly Marginal
20 Carleton 3.12% 20 Richmond Hill 3.58% 19 Nickel Belt 5.02%
21 Simcoe North 3.71% 21 Fundy Royal 3.79% 20 Beauport—Limoilou 5.10%
22 Drummond 3.92% 22 Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 4.01% 21 Laurentides—Labelle 5.75%
23 Flamborough—Glanbrook 4.34% 23 Cambridge 4.52% 22 Edmonton Griesbach 5.94%
24 Parry Sound—Muskoka 4.42% 24 Vaughan—Woodbridge 4.85% 23 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 6.21%
25 Chatham-Kent—Leamington 4.48% Fairly Marginal 24 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 6.28%
26 Elmwood—Transcona 4.63% 25 New Brunswick Southwest 5.36% 25 Oshawa 6.30%
27 Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo 4.84% 26 Kitchener South—Hespeler 5.59% 26 Burnaby North—Seymour 6.48%
28 Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou 4.88% 27 St. Catharines 5.61% 27 La Pointe-de-l'Île 6.82%
29 Milton 4.94% 28 Essex 5.73% 28 Richmond—Arthabaska 7.32%
Fairly Marginal 29 Niagara Centre 5.97% 29 Terrebonne 7.40%
30 La Pointe-de-l'Île 5.01% 30 Calgary Skyview 6.13% 30 Thérèse-De Blainville 7.57%
31 Terrebonne 5.02% 31 Eglinton—Lawrence 6.25% 31 Joliette 7.61%
32 Joliette 5.08% 32 Kelowna—Lake Country 6.41% 32 Sarnia—Lambton 7.68%
33 Cariboo—Prince George 5.15% 33 Markham—Stouffville 6.44% 33 Montarville 7.86%
34 Port Moody—Coquitlam 5.15% 34 Mississauga—Lakeshore 6.49% 34 Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam 8.03%
35 Beauport—Limoilou 5.16% 35 Port Moody—Coquitlam 6.49% 35 Compton—Stanstead 9.47%
36 Huron—Bruce 5.23% 36 Steveston—Richmond East 6.61% 36 Saskatoon—University 10.00%
37 Perth—Wellington 5.35% 37 Saskatoon West 6.68% Fairly Safe
38 Mirabel 5.38% 38 Oakville 6.89% 37 Cariboo—Prince George 10.81%
39 Rivière-du-Nord 5.69% 39 Kenora 7.04% 38 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 11.28%
40 Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 5.81% 40 Québec 7.11% 39 Acadie—Bathurst 11.31%
41 Markham—Unionville 6.04% 41 South Okanagan—West Kootenay 7.44% 40 Saskatoon—Grasswood 11.41%
42 London—Fanshawe 6.34% 42 Mississauga—Streetsville 7.45% 41 Repentigny 11.42%
43 Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix 6.63% 43 Louis-Hébert 7.66% 42 Edmonton Centre 12.74%
44 Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes 6.82% 44 Burnaby South 7.96% 43 Montcalm 13.16%
45 Richmond—Arthabaska 6.90% 45 Burnaby North—Seymour 8.25% 44 Mégantic—L'Érable 13.46%
46 Dufferin—Caledon 7.17% 46 Peterborough—Kawartha 8.75% 45 Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook 13.56%
47 Mégantic—L'Érable 7.28% 47 Tobique—Mactaquac 9.59% 46 La Prairie 13.58%
48 Repentigny 7.39% 48 Courtenay—Alberni 9.84% 47 North Okanagan—Shuswap 13.70%
49 Haldimand—Norfolk 7.55% 49 Nanaimo—Ladysmith[a 4] 9.85% 48 Louis-Hébert 14.04%
50 Sherbrooke 7.57% Fairly Safe 49 Thunder Bay—Rainy River 14.36%
51 Niagara Falls 7.60% 50 Hamilton Mountain 10.19% 50 Regina—Qu'Appelle 14.49%
52 Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke 7.66% 51 Mississauga—Erin Mills 10.48% 51 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun 14.95%
53 Regina—Lewvan 7.73% 52 London West 10.49% 52 Surrey Centre 14.99%
54 Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 7.84% 53 London—Fanshawe 10.58% Green
55 Simcoe—Grey 8.00% 54 Cloverdale—Langley City 10.75% Fairly Marginal
56 Timmins—James Bay 8.14% 55 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 11.92% 1 Victoria 9.36%
57 Chilliwack—Hope 8.55% 56 Kanata—Carleton 12.08% Fairly Safe
58 Langley—Aldergrove 9.08% 57 Pickering—Uxbridge 12.11% 2 Nanaimo—Ladysmith[a 4] 13.44%
59 South Okanagan—West Kootenay 9.15% 58 Jonquière 12.30% Bloc Québécois
60 Montcalm 9.29% 59 Mount Royal 12.46% Marginal
61 Barrie—Innisfil 9.30% 60 Edmonton Strathcona 12.68% 1 Salaberry—Suroît 2.07%
62 North Okanagan—Shuswap 9.35% 61 Drummond 12.72% 2 Laurentides—Labelle 2.35%
63 Durham 9.38% 62 Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 12.98% 3 Hochelaga 3.17%
64 Nanaimo—Ladysmith[a 4] 9.68% 63 Miramichi—Grand Lake 13.00% 4 Beloeil—Chambly 3.39%
Fairly Safe 64 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 13.13% 5 Longueuil—Saint-Hubert 3.95%
65 Brantford—Brant 10.19% 65 Trois-Rivières 13.20% 6 Montarville 4.12%
66 Outremont[a 5] 10.65% 66 Don Valley North 13.60% 7 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 4.37%
67 Oshawa 10.83% 67 Sault Ste. Marie 13.63% Fairly Marginal
68 Sarnia—Lambton 11.55% 68 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 13.73% 8 Thérèse-De Blainville 5.41%
69 Abitibi—Témiscamingue 11.87% 69 Scarborough—Agincourt 13.92% 9 Jonquière 5.90%
70 Manicouagan 11.88% 70 North Island—Powell River 14.04% 10 Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 6.95%
71 Calgary Forest Lawn 12.02% 71 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord[a 1] 14.49% 11 Drummond 7.64%
72 Cowichan—Malahat—Langford 12.17% 72 Vancouver South 14.93% 12 Saint-Jean 8.35%
73 Hamilton Centre 12.17% 73 Brampton Centre 14.97% 13 Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne 8.36%
74 York—Simcoe 12.48% 14 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 9.56%
75 Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 12.51% Fairly Safe
76 Brandon—Souris 12.96% 15 Québec 10.05%
77 Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 13.08% 16 La Prairie 10.22%
78 Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 13.17% 17 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord[a 1] 10.57%
79 Oxford 13.48% 18 Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 12.87%
80 Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 14.11% 19 Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix 14.37%
81 Wellington—Halton Hills 14.42% 20 Richmond—Arthabaska 14.39%
82 Edmonton West 14.44% 21 Châteauguay—Lacolle 14.74%
83 New Westminster—Burnaby 14.49% 22 Trois-Rivières 14.83%
84 Laurier—Sainte-Marie 14.61% 23 Lac-Saint-Jean[a 3] 14.90%
85 North Island—Powell River 14.74%
86 Lac-Saint-Jean[a 3] 14.83%
  1. ^ a b c Later gained by the Conservatives in a by-election on June 18, 2018, by a margin of 23.26% over the Liberals.
  2. ^ Later gained by the Liberals in a by-election on December 11, 2017, by a margin of 5.35% over the Conservatives.
  3. ^ a b c Later gained by the Liberals in a by-election on October 23, 2017, by a margin of 13.58% over the Conservatives.
  4. ^ a b c Later gained by the Greens in a by-election on May 9, 2019, by a margin of 12.38% over the Conservatives.
  5. ^ Later gained by the Liberals in a by-election on February 25, 2019, by a margin of 12.89% over the NDP.

Opinion polls[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during campaign period of the 2019 Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Evolution of voting intentions during the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. – Source code for plot generation is available here.[432]

Candidates[edit]

Election spending[edit]

Before the campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.[433]

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates[edit]

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[434]

Registered third parties[edit]

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[435] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[436]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Includes Heather Leung, who was ejected from the Conservative Party after candidate registration was closed.
  2. ^ Includes Marthe Lépine, who was ejected by the party after candidate registration was closed, and Michael Kalmanovitch, who publicly withdrew and threw his support to the local NDP candidate, both after candidate registration was closed.
  3. ^ Includes Pierre Nantel, who ran as a candidate for the Green Party in the 2019 election.
  4. ^ a b Following his removal from the NDP caucus, Pierre Nantel sat as an Independent until the writ was dropped, but will run as a Green Party candidate on Federal election day.[301]
  5. ^ Erin Weir designated himself as a member of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation following his expulsion from the NDP caucus. The CCF is not a registered party and Weir's designation exists only in a parliamentary, not electoral, sense. See: Co-operative Commonwealth Federation#2018
  6. ^ The NDP changed their French slogan during the campaign. Prior to this one, they used "On se bat pour vous", which is "We Fight for You" in English.
  7. ^ The GPC changed their French slogan during the campaign. Prior to this one, they used "Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l’avant ensemble", which is "Neither left nor right. Forward together" in English.
  8. ^ The House of Commons allows members to choose their own affiliation; Weir chose to revive the CCF name when he was ejected from the NDP caucus.

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