2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses

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2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses

← 2016 February 3, 2020 2024 →

49 delegates (41 pledged, 8 unpledged)

The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses will take place on Monday, February 3, 2020, as the first nominating contest in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Iowa caucuses are a closed caucus, with the state awarding 49 delegates, of which 41 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the caucuses.

Procedure[edit]

Precinct caucuses will be held on the evening of Monday, February 3, 2020, in order to allocate delegates for county conventions. In the closed caucuses, candidates must meet a viability threshold of 15 percent within an individual precinct in order to be considered viable, with supporters of non-viable candidates then allowed to support one of the remaining viable candidates. County convention delegates are then awarded proportionally on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses, with the 41 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention allocated on the basis of the state delegate equivalents. Of the 41 pledged delegates, between 5 and 8 are allocated to each of the state's 4 congressional districts and another 5 allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) in addition to 9 at-large pledged delegates.[1]

The county conventions will subsequently be held on Saturday, March 21, 2020 to choose delegates for the state Democratic convention, followed by district conventions on Saturday, April 25, 2020 to elect district delegates to the Democratic National Convention. On June 13, 2020, the state Democratic convention will meet to vote on the 9 pledged at-large and 5 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 41 pledged delegates Iowa sends to the national convention will be joined by 8 unpledged PLEO delegates (5 members of the Democratic National Committee and 3 members of Congress, of which all 3 are U.S. Representatives). These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[1]

On February 11, 2019, the Iowa Democratic Party proposed several changes to the procedures used in the previous caucuses, including the addition of a period for "virtual caucuses" from Wednesday, January 29, 2020 to Monday, February 3, 2020 which will allow participants unable to physically attend the precinct caucuses to join in an online virtual caucus or teleconference in which they will be given the opportunity to rank candidate preferences, with support for non-viable candidates redistributed to viable ones.[1] This process would continue until no non-viable choices remained, and the results would be aggregated with congressional districts for the purposes of delegate allocation but limited to 10 percent of state delegate equivalents, regardless of the number of those using the virtual caucus option. The results of both the virtual and precinct caucuses will be released on the night of February 3, and as a result of rules changes by the national party, raw vote totals for the first and second alignment periods of the caucuses will be published.[2]

In late August 2019, the Democratic National Committee ordered both the Iowa and Nevada Democratic state parties to scrap their plans for "virtual caucuses" because of security concerns.[3]

On September 20, 2019, the DNC conditionally approved a plan for "satellite caucus sites" that will allow Iowa Democrats to participate if they are working or going to college outside of the state on February 3, 2020.[4]

Polling[edit]

Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated
Dates
polled
Elizabeth
Warren
Pete
Buttigieg
Bernie
Sanders
Joe
Biden
Amy
Klobuchar
Kamala
Harris
Andrew
Yang
Tom
Steyer
Tulsi
Gabbard
Others Undecided[a]
270 to Win Nov 14, 2019 Oct 24–Nov 12, 2019 22.2% 19.0% 17.0% 15.6% 3.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.8%[b] 8.6%
RealClear Politics Nov 12, 2019 Oct 25–Nov 11, 2019 20.0% 19.7% 16.3% 17.0% 4.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 4.2%[c] 6.8%
Average 21.1% 19.4% 16.7% 16.3% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.6%[d] 7.3%
   – Debate qualifying poll as designated by the Democratic National Committee
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Pete
Buttigieg
Tulsi
Gabbard
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Bernie
Sanders
Tom
Steyer
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Un­decided
Nov 14, 2019 Patrick enters the race
Monmouth University Nov 7–11, 2019 451 (LV) ± 4.6% 19% 22% 2% 3% 5% 13% 3% 18% 3% 6%[f] 8%
University of Iowa Oct 28–Nov 10, 2019 465 (LV) ± 4.6% 15% 16% 3% 2% 1% 18% 3% 23% 3% 2%[g] 13%
Quinnipiac University Oct 30–Nov 5, 2019 698 (LV) ± 4.5% 15% 19% 3% 4% 5% 17% 3% 20% 3% 4%[h] 8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[i]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Un­decided
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
Siena College/New York Times Oct 25–30, 2019 439 (LV) ± 4.7% 17% 2% 18% 3% 4% 1% 19% 22% 8%[j] 6%
Civiqs/Iowa State University Oct 18–22, 2019 598 (LV) ± 5% 12% 1% 20% 3% 4% 1% 18% 28% 8%[l] 4%
Suffolk University/USA Today Oct 16–18, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 18% 1% 13% 3% 3% 1% 9% 17% 7%[m] 29%
Emerson College Oct 13–16,2019 317 (LV) ± 5.5% 23% 3% 16% 2% 1% 0% 13% 23% 15%[n]
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Oct 8–10, 2019 548 (LV) ± 3.6% 22% 2% 17% 3% [note 1] 1% 5% 25% 26%[o] [note 1]
YouGov/CBS News Oct 3–11, 2019 729 (RV) ±4.6% 22% 2% 14% 5% 2% 2% 21% 22% 7%[p]
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register [1] Sep 14–18, 2019 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 20% 3% 9% 6% 3% 2% 11% 22% 11%[q] 14%
David Binder Research Sep 14–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 25% 2% 12% 5% 8% 1% 9% 23% 9%[r] 6%
Civiqs/Iowa State University Sep 13–17, 2019 572 (LV) ± 5.2% 16% 2% 13% 5% 3% 2% 16% 24% 11%[s] 8%
YouGov/CBS News Aug 28–Sep 4, 2019 835 ± 4.3% 29% 2% 7% 6% 2% 2% 26% 17% 9%[t]
Change Research Aug 9–11, 2019 621 (LV) ± 3.9% 17% 3% 13% 8% 2% 3% 17% 28% 9%[u]
Monmouth University Aug 1–4, 2019 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 28% 1% 8% 11% 3% <1% 9% 19% 11%[v] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jul 23–25, 2019 630 ± 3.3% 23% 2% 7% 12% 2% 11% 23% 4% 16%
YouGov/CBS News Jul 9–18, 2019 706 ± 4.4% 24% 3% 7% 16% 4% 1% 19% 17% 9%[w]
Change Research Jun 29–Jul 4, 2019 420 (LV) 16% 1% 25% 16% 1% 2% 16% 18% 5%[x]
David Binder Research Jun 29–Jul 1, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 17% 2% 10% 18% 4% 1% 12% 20% 9%[y] 9%
Suffolk University/USA Today Jun 28–Jul 1, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 24% 2% 6% 16% 2% 1% 9% 13% 6%[z] 21%
Change Research Jun 17–20, 2019 308 (LV) 27% 5% 17% 4% 2% 1% 18% 20% 7%[aa]
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register Jun 2–5, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 24% 1% 14% 7% 2% 2% 16% 15% 6%[ab] 6%
Change Research May 15–19, 2019 615 (LV) ± 3.9% 24% 1% 14% 10% 2% 5% 24% 12% 9%[ac]
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Apr 30–May 2, 2019 576 ± 4.1% 35% 2% 11% 5% 4% 3% 14% 10% 16%
Gravis Marketing Apr 17–18, 2019 590 ± 4.0% 19% 4% 14% 6% 4% 5% 19% 6% 7%[ad] 16%
Monmouth University Apr 4–9, 2019 351 ± 5.2% 27% 3% 9% 7% 4% 6% 16% 7% 7%[ae] 12%
David Binder Research Mar 21–24, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 25% 7% 6% 9% 6% 6% 17% 8% 9%[af] 7%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 249 ± 6.2% 25% 6% 11% 10% 2% 5% 24% 9% 8%[ag]
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] Mar 14–15, 2019 678 29% 4% 5% 6% 7% 15% 8% 4% 22%
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register Mar 3–6, 2019 401 ± 4.9% 27% 3% 1% 7% 3% 5% 25% 9% 5%[ah] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jan 31–Feb 2, 2019 558 ± 3.6% 25% 4% 17% 5% 4% 10% 11% 1%[ai] 25%
Emerson College Jan 30–Feb 2, 2019 260 ± 6.0% 29% 4% 0% 18% 3% 6% 15% 11% 15%[aj]
Change Research Dec 13–17, 2018 1,291 (LV) 20% 4% 7% 5% 19% 20% 7% 18%[ak]
Selzer/CNN/Des Moines Register Dec 10–13, 2018 455 ± 4.6% 32% 4% 5% 3% 11% 19% 8% 7%[al] 6%
David Binder Research Dec 10–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 30% 6% 7% 10% 11% 13% 9% 8%[am] 6%
David Binder Research Sep 20–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 37% 8% 10% 12% 16% 6%[an] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] Mar 3–6, 2017 1,062 17% 3% 11% 34%[ao] 32%

Results[edit]

Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2020
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Michael Bennet
Democratic Joe Biden
Democratic Cory Booker
Democratic Steve Bullock
Democratic Pete Buttigieg
Democratic Julián Castro
Democratic John Delaney
Democratic Tulsi Gabbard
Democratic Kamala Harris
Democratic Amy Klobuchar
Democratic Wayne Messam
Democratic Bernie Sanders
Democratic Joe Sestak
Democratic Tom Steyer
Democratic Elizabeth Warren
Democratic Marianne Williamson
Democratic Andrew Yang
Total votes 100%

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by O'Say Can You See PAC, the PAC that supported O'Malley in 2016
Additional candidates
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  2. ^ Booker with 1.2%; Castro with 0.6%; Bullock and Bennet with 0.4%; Delaney with 0.2%; Bloomberg, Messam, Sestak, and Williamson with 0.0%
  3. ^ Booker with 1.7%; Castro and Bullock with 1.0%; Bennet with 0.5%; Williamson, Delaney, and Sestak with 0.0%
  4. ^ Booker with 1.5%; Castro with 0.8%; Bullock with 0.7%; Bennet with 0.5%; Delaney with 0.1%; Bloomberg, Messam, Sestak, and Williamson with 0.0%
  5. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ Booker with 2%; Bullock and Castro with 1%; Bennet, Bloomberg, Delaney, and Williamson with <1%; Sestak with 0%
  7. ^ Castro with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Delaney, O'Rourke and Ryan with 0%
  8. ^ Bennett, Booker, Bullock and Castro with 1%; Delaney, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  9. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  10. ^ Yang with 3%; Gabbard and Steyer with 2%; Delaney with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  11. ^ As evidenced by Sestak being listed in second choices but not first preferences and the lack of an 'other' column in the first preferences topline
  12. ^ Steyer with 3%; Gabbard and Yang with 2%; Bennet with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Ryan and Williamson with 0%; Messam and Sestak with no voters[k]
  13. ^ Gabbard and Steyer with 3%; Yang with 1%; Delaney, Ryan and Williamson with 0%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam and Sestak with no voters; refused with 0%
  14. ^ Yang with 5%; Bullock with 4%; Gabbard and Steyer with 2%; Bennet and Williamson with 1%; Castro with 0%; Delaney, Messam, Ryan and Sestak with no voters; everyone else with 4%
  15. ^ Yang with 1%; a different Democratic candidate, don't know, or refused with 25%
  16. ^ Steyer with 3%, Bennet, Gabbard, Williamson, and Ryan with 1%, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Sestak, and Yang with 0%; "someone else" with 0%
  17. ^ Gabbard, Steyer, and Yang with 2%, Bullock, Castro, and Delaney with 1%, Bennet, de Blasio, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; "none of these" with 2%
  18. ^ Steyer with 3%; Yang with 2%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney and Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Messam, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  19. ^ Gabbard with 4%; Yang with 3%; Steyer with 2%; Ryan and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro and Delaney with 0%
  20. ^ Steyer with 2%; Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Messam, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  21. ^ Bullock, Gabbard, and Steyer with 2%; Bennet, Castro, and Yang with 1%; Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Messam, and Williamson with 0%
  22. ^ Steyer with 3%; Gillibrand and Yang with 2%; Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Inslee, O'Rourke, and Williamson with <1%; de Blasio, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Sestak with 0%
  23. ^ Castro and Steyer with 2%; Delaney, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gravel, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
  24. ^ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Inslee, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Moulton, Ryan, and Williamson with 0%
  25. ^ Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Hickenlooper, Inslee, Ryan, and Swalwell with <1%; Messam and Moulton with 0%; others with <1%
  26. ^ Bennet, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
  27. ^ Delaney with 2%; Castro, Gabbard, Gravel, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  28. ^ Bennet, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with <1%; de Blasio and Messam with 0%
  29. ^ Yang with 2%; Abrams, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Swalwell with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Ryan, and Williamson with 0%
  30. ^ Delaney with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, and Yang with 1%; Castro and Inslee with 0%
  31. ^ Castro with 2%; Delaney, Gillibrand, Ryan, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, de Blasio, Gabbard, and Inslee with <1%; Bennet, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe, Messam, Moulton, and Williamson with 0%
  32. ^ Delaney with 3%; Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Inslee, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Hickenlooper, and Williamson with <1%; Bennet and McAuliffe with 0%; others with <1%
  33. ^ Castro, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, and Inslee with 1%; Gillibrand and Yang with 0%; others with 4%
  34. ^ Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, and Inslee with 1%; Bloomberg, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Holder, Swalwell, Williamson, and Yang with <1%
  35. ^ Gillibrand with 1%
  36. ^ Brown with 4%; Castro with 2%; Delaney and Gillibrand with 1%; Gabbard and Yang with 0%; others with 8%
  37. ^ Kennedy with 5%; Clinton with 4%; Brown with 2%; Bloomberg, Castro, Cuomo, Delaney, Gillibrand, Kerry, and Swalwell with 1%; Holder, McAuliffe, Schultz, and Steyer with 0%
  38. ^ Bloomberg with 3%; Brown, Castro, Delaney, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Bullock, Garcetti, Gillibrand, Holder, Inslee, Steyer, Swalwell, and Yang with <1%
  39. ^ Brown with 3%; Bloomberg and Kerry with 2%; Delaney with 1%; Garcetti with 0%; others with <1%
  40. ^ Gillibrand and Holder with 2%; Avenatti and Delaney with 1%; Bullock, Garcetti, Landrieu, and Patrick with <1%; others with 1%
  41. ^ O'Malley with 18%; Cuomo with 8%; Castro and Sandberg with 4%; Gillibrand with 3%; Schultz with 1%
  1. ^ a b The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Iowa Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  2. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (February 11, 2019). "How Democrats hope to let Iowans participate in the caucuses without showing up in person". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  3. ^ "DNC throws Iowa, Nevada caucuses into confusion". Politico. August 31, 2019.
  4. ^ "Iowa Dems pitch out-of-state caucuses". Politico. September 20, 2019.

External links[edit]