2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

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2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

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Turnout%
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Primary elections[edit]

Canceled Republican primary[edit]

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6]

Democratic primary[edit]

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.70 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.68 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†) 35,537 5.79 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 24,868 4.05 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.49 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.31 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.11 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.10 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.03 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.03 0
Total 536,509[a] 86.72%[b] 67

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Lean D (flip) September 17, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Tilt D (flip) September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Tossup July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Tossup September 8, 2020
RCP[14] Tossup August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Lean D (flip) July 26, 2020
CNN[16] Tossup August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Lean D (flip) September 2, 2020
CBS News[18] Tossup August 16, 2020
270towin[19] Tossup August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Tossup July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Tossup August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Lean D (flip) August 6, 2020
538[23] Tilt D (flip) September 9, 2020

Polling[edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win August 29 – September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 48.8% 44.6% 6.6% Biden +4.2
Real Clear Politics August 8 – September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 49.3% 44.5% 6.2% Biden +4.8
FiveThirtyEight until September 11, 2020 September 12, 2020 49.6% 44.6% 5.8% Biden +5.0
Average 49.2% 44.6% 6.2% Biden +4.6

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 262 (LV) 43% 49% - -
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 48% - - 2%[e] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 47% - - 2%[f] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 855 (LV) ± 3.35% 42% 47% 1% 0% 1%[g] 8%
Monmouth University Sep 11–15 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 4% - 1%[h] 3%
420 (LV) 46%[i] 48% - - 3% 3%
47%[j] 47% - - 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 10–15 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 49% 4% - 1%[k] 6%[l]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13 1,298 (RV) ± 3% 40% 45% - - 4%[m] 11%
Gravis Marketing Sep 10–11 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 50% - - 2%
YouGov/CBS Sep 9–11 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% - - 3%[n] 6%
OH Predictive Insights Sep 8–10 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% - - 5%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% - -
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 901 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 46%[o] 49% - -
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 470 (LV) 45% 49% - - 6%[p]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 0% 1% 0%[q] 6%
FOX News Aug 29 – Sep 1 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 3% - 1%[r] 6%
858 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 49% 3% - 3%[s] 6%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 943 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 52% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 344 (LV) 47% 49% - -
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–18 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 47% 1% 1% 3%[t] 10%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 947 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 45% - -
Emerson College Aug 8–10 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[u] 53% - -
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 428 (LV) 44% 45% - -
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 3% - 1%[v] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - -
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[A] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% - - 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2 1,215 (LV) 44% 47% - - 8%
43% 45% 2% 1% - 10%
Change Research/CNBC[1] Jul 24–26 365 (LV) 45% 47% - -
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 49% - -
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% - - 4%[w] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23 858 (RV) 38% 46% 2% 1% 3%[x] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% - - 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[B] Jul 17–18 960 (RV) 45% 49% - - 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[C] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% - - 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 345 (LV) 45% 51% - -
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 4%[y] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% - - 0%[z] 7%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 3.3%[aa] 4.2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 311 (LV)[ab] 44% 51% - -
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% - - 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2%[ac] 13%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–16 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% - - 4%[ad] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% - - 5%[ae] 1%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 201 (LV)[af] 44% 45% - - 5%[ag]
FOX News May 30 – Jun 2 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% - - 6%[ah] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 329 (LV)[ai] 45% 44% - - 9% 2%
Morning Consult May 17-26 784 (LV) 47% 45% - -
HighGround Inc. May 18–22 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% - - 4%[aj] 4%[ak]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% - - 3%[al] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - 1%[am] 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16 500 (LV) 46% 47% - - 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% - -
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% - - 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% - - 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% - - 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% - - 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3 666 (V) 46% 47% - - 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% - - 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[D] Jan 22–24 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4 760 (V) 46% 46% - - 8%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[an]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[ao] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC Jul 29–31 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[ap] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 44% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[aq] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) 47% 46% 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 46% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[ar] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[as] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 (V) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

Results[edit]

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence (incumbent)
Democratic Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Total votes

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  2. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  3. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  2. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[9]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[7]
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  6. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  8. ^ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  9. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  12. ^ Includes "Refused"
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  14. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  15. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  16. ^ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  17. ^ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  18. ^ "Other" with 1%
  19. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  20. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  21. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  22. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 3%
  24. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  25. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  27. ^ "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  28. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  29. ^ "other" with 2%
  30. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  32. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  34. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  35. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  36. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  37. ^ Includes "refused"
  38. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  39. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  40. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  41. ^ Refused with 0%
  42. ^ Refused with 0%
  43. ^ Refused with 0%
  44. ^ Refused with 1%
  45. ^ Refused with 1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  4. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  5. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  6. ^ "Arizona Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  7. ^ a b "Arizona Election Results". results.arizona.vote. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  9. ^ "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  11. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  12. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  17. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  22. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
  24. ^ "Arizona 2020 General Election". Green Papers. Retrieved 2020-09-17.