2016 United States presidential election in Virginia

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2016 United States presidential election in Virginia

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout72.05% (of registered voters)[1] Increase
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,981,473 1,769,443
Percentage 49.73% 44.41%

Virginia Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County and independent city results
Clinton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Trump:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Logo used by Clinton's Virginia campaign

The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus The District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Virginia voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Virginia voters do not register by party.

The Democratic Party candidate, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of New York, carried Virginia with a 49.7% plurality in the popular vote against businessman Donald Trump of New York, who carried 44.4%, a victory margin of 5.3%. Clinton seemed to benefit from having Tim Kaine on the ticket. Whereas the national popular vote swung 1.9% Republican from the previous election, Virginia swung 1.37% Democratic.[2][2] Kaine himself became optimistic on election night after it became clear that he and Clinton would win Virginia by a larger margin than Obama did in 2012. His optimism soon faded, however, as it was announced that Clinton had lost many other important swing states to Trump.[3]

Trump became the first Republican candidate since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to win the White House without carrying Virginia.[4] The Old Dominion had been a traditionally Democratic-leaning state from the party's founding until 1952. Although Virginia was later considered a reliable Republican-leaning state from 1952 until 2008, it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004. This is due largely to migration into counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., which has tilted those densely populated areas towards the Democratic Party once more.

Virginia was the only state of the eleven former states that belonged to the Confederate States of America to vote Democratic in this election. This is a reversal from 1976, when it was the only state that had belonged to the CSA to vote Republican. This was the first time since 1996 that Virginia went for the losing candidate. Virginia was also the only state Hillary Clinton won which was never carried by her husband Bill Clinton in either of his runs for president in 1992 and 1996.

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Virginia as of Election Day.

  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton[5]
  2. CNN: Leans Clinton[6]
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Clinton[7]
  4. NBC: Leans Clinton[8]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton[9]
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup[10]
  7. Fox News: Leans Clinton[11]
  8. ABC: Leans Clinton[12]

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 1,981,473 49.73% 13
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 1,769,443 44.41% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 118,274 2.97% 0
Independent Evan McMullin Mindy Finn 54,054 1.36% 0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 27,638 0.69% 0
Independent (Write-in)
-
-
33,749 0.85% 0
Totals 3,984,631 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 71.30%
Source: Virginia Department of Elections

By city/county[edit]

City/County Clinton% Clinton# Trump% Trump# Others% Others# Total
Accomack County 42.61% 6,740 54.26% 8,583 3.13% 495 15,818
Albemarle County 58.78% 33,345 33.95% 19,259 7.27% 4,122 56,726
Alleghany County 29.57% 2,166 66.54% 4,874 3.89% 285 7,325
Amelia County 30.23% 2,128 66.88% 4,708 2.90% 204 7,040
Amherst County 32.85% 5,057 63.13% 9,719 4.03% 620 15,396
Appomattox County 25.30% 2,023 71.46% 5,715 3.24% 259 7,997
Arlington County 75.83% 92,016 16.64% 20,186 7.53% 9,137 121,339
Augusta County 22.50% 8,177 71.99% 26,163 5.51% 2,003 36,343
Bath County 26.76% 603 68.71% 1,548 4.53% 102 2,253
Bedford County 22.97% 9,768 72.10% 30,659 4.93% 2,098 42,525
Bland County 14.43% 453 81.97% 2,573 3.60% 113 3,139
Botetourt County 23.98% 4,494 71.38% 13,375 4.64% 870 18,739
Brunswick County 58.43% 4,481 39.72% 3,046 1.85% 142 7,669
Buchanan County 18.61% 1,721 78.90% 7,296 2.49% 230 9,247
Buckingham County 42.91% 3,128 54.19% 3,950 2.89% 211 7,289
Campbell County 24.20% 6,664 71.00% 19,551 4.79% 1,320 27,535
Caroline County 45.14% 6,432 50.16% 7,147 4.70% 669 14,248
Carroll County 18.74% 2,559 78.09% 10,663 3.17% 433 13,655
Charles City County 60.77% 2,496 35.94% 1,476 3.29% 135 4,107
Charlotte County 37.11% 2,155 59.91% 3,479 2.98% 173 5,807
Chesterfield County 45.97% 81,074 48.22% 85,045 5.81% 10,243 176,362
Clarke County 37.15% 3,051 56.75% 4,661 6.10% 501 8,213
Craig County 19.38% 541 76.68% 2,140 3.94% 110 2,791
Culpeper County 34.92% 7,759 60.08% 13,349 5.00% 1,110 22,218
Cumberland County 41.50% 2,036 54.97% 2,697 3.53% 173 4,906
Dickenson County 20.73% 1,335 76.58% 4,932 2.69% 173 6,440
Dinwiddie County 42.47% 5,765 54.86% 7,447 2.67% 363 13,575
Essex County 47.32% 2,542 49.46% 2,657 3.22% 173 5,372
Fairfax County 64.43% 355,133 28.61% 157,710 6.96% 38,340 551,183
Fauquier County 34.63% 12,971 59.07% 22,127 6.31% 2,362 37,460
Floyd County 28.57% 2,300 65.75% 5,293 5.68% 457 8,050
Fluvanna County 42.38% 5,760 51.68% 7,025 5.94% 807 13,592
Franklin County 26.91% 7,257 68.85% 18,569 4.25% 1,145 26,971
Frederick County 29.51% 11,932 64.50% 26,083 6.00% 2,425 40,440
Giles County 23.75% 1,950 71.97% 5,910 4.29% 352 8,212
Gloucester County 27.54% 5,404 66.75% 13,096 5.70% 1,119 19,619
Goochland County 34.83% 4,889 59.73% 8,384 5.44% 764 14,037
Grayson County 19.31% 1,407 76.76% 5,592 3.93% 286 7,285
Greene County 30.44% 2,924 61.88% 5,945 7.68% 738 9,607
Greensville County 58.63% 2,558 39.81% 1,737 1.56% 68 4,363
Halifax County 40.58% 6,897 57.10% 9,704 2.31% 393 16,994
Hanover County 30.90% 19,382 63.18% 39,630 5.92% 3,711 62,723
Henrico County 57.44% 93,935 36.60% 59,857 5.96% 9,744 163,536
Henry County 34.03% 8,198 63.13% 15,208 2.84% 685 24,091
Highland County 26.67% 371 68.87% 958 4.46% 62 1,391
Isle of Wight County 37.40% 7,881 57.91% 12,204 4.70% 990 21,075
James City County 44.26% 19,105 49.35% 21,306 6.39% 2,758 43,169
King and Queen County 39.78% 1,468 56.88% 2,099 3.33% 123 3,690
King George County 33.25% 4,007 60.92% 7,341 5.83% 702 12,050
King William County 30.18% 2,760 65.33% 5,975 4.49% 411 9,146
Lancaster County 43.18% 2,869 53.02% 3,523 3.81% 253 6,645
Lee County 17.31% 1,627 80.25% 7,543 2.44% 229 9,399
Loudoun County 55.06% 100,795 38.21% 69,949 6.72% 12,306 183,050
Louisa County 35.27% 6,212 59.78% 10,528 4.95% 872 17,612
Lunenburg County 39.87% 2,227 57.36% 3,204 2.77% 155 5,586
Madison County 31.57% 2,203 63.32% 4,419 5.12% 357 6,979
Mathews County 29.43% 1,563 66.22% 3,517 4.35% 231 5,311
Mecklenburg County 42.05% 6,285 55.46% 8,288 2.49% 372 14,945
Middlesex County 35.03% 2,108 60.99% 3,670 3.97% 239 6,017
Montgomery County 46.53% 20,021 45.22% 19,459 8.25% 3,551 43,031
Nelson County 44.39% 3,689 49.98% 4,154 5.63% 468 8,311
New Kent County 28.99% 3,546 66.36% 8,118 4.65% 569 12,233
Northampton County 52.77% 3,255 43.55% 2,686 3.68% 227 6,168
Northumberland County 38.56% 2,852 58.16% 4,302 3.29% 243 7,397
Nottoway County 41.95% 2,829 55.04% 3,712 3.01% 203 6,744
Orange County 34.50% 5,957 60.93% 10,521 4.57% 789 17,267
Page County 23.41% 2,514 72.91% 7,831 3.68% 395 10,740
Patrick County 20.74% 1,768 75.71% 6,454 3.55% 303 8,525
Pittsylvania County 29.11% 9,199 68.21% 21,554 2.67% 845 31,598
Powhatan County 24.04% 4,060 70.38% 11,885 5.58% 943 16,888
Prince Edward County 50.21% 4,591 44.85% 4,101 4.93% 451 9,143
Prince George County 39.66% 6,419 56.58% 9,157 3.76% 608 16,184
Prince William County 57.60% 113,144 36.51% 71,721 5.89% 11,577 196,442
Pulaski County 27.51% 4,172 68.06% 10,322 4.42% 671 15,165
Rappahannock County 38.97% 1,747 56.64% 2,539 4.39% 197 4,483
Richmond County 36.79% 1,347 60.45% 2,213 2.76% 101 3,661
Roanoke County 33.41% 17,200 61.00% 31,408 5.60% 2,881 51,489
Rockbridge County 32.50% 3,508 61.88% 6,680 5.62% 607 10,795
Rockingham County 24.98% 9,366 69.33% 25,990 5.68% 2,131 37,487
Russell County 19.03% 2,330 77.75% 9,521 3.23% 395 12,246
Scott County 15.65% 1,581 81.65% 8,247 2.69% 272 10,100
Shenandoah County 25.71% 5,273 68.72% 14,094 5.56% 1,141 20,508
Smyth County 20.67% 2,665 75.64% 9,750 3.69% 475 12,890
Southampton County 40.52% 3,595 56.75% 5,035 2.73% 242 8,872
Spotsylvania County 38.70% 24,207 55.35% 34,623 5.95% 3,719 62,549
Stafford County 42.33% 27,908 51.37% 33,868 6.31% 4,158 65,934
Surry County 53.74% 2,272 43.02% 1,819 3.24% 137 4,228
Sussex County 57.08% 2,879 40.74% 2,055 2.18% 110 5,044
Tazewell County 15.59% 2,895 81.70% 15,168 2.71% 503 18,566
Warren County 28.80% 5,169 65.58% 11,773 5.62% 1,009 17,951
Washington County 21.48% 5,553 74.75% 19,320 3.76% 973 25,846
Westmoreland County 44.74% 3,836 51.88% 4,448 3.38% 290 8,574
Wise County 17.81% 2,701 79.71% 12,086 2.48% 376 15,163
Wythe County 20.78% 2,770 75.38% 10,046 3.84% 512 13,328
York County 38.11% 12,999 55.22% 18,837 6.67% 2,277 34,113
Alexandria 75.56% 57,242 17.54% 13,285 6.91% 5,235 75,762
Bristol 26.11% 1,835 69.62% 4,892 4.27% 300 7,027
Buena Vista 28.79% 693 59.41% 1,430 11.80% 284 2,407
Charlottesville 79.68% 17,901 13.17% 2,960 7.15% 1,606 22,467
Chesapeake 46.71% 52,627 47.97% 54,047 5.32% 5,988 112,662
Colonial Heights 27.99% 2,367 67.18% 5,681 4.84% 409 8,457
Covington 38.37% 914 56.63% 1,349 5.00% 119 2,382
Danville 58.39% 11,059 38.56% 7,303 3.05% 578 18,940
Emporia 64.67% 1,530 33.35% 789 1.99% 47 2,366
Fairfax 61.25% 7,367 30.78% 3,702 7.97% 959 12,028
Falls Church 75.02% 5,819 17.07% 1,324 7.92% 614 7,757
Franklin 62.03% 2,519 34.99% 1,421 2.98% 121 4,061
Fredericksburg 59.58% 6,707 33.26% 3,744 7.16% 806 11,257
Galax 28.66% 681 67.47% 1,603 3.87% 92 2,376
Hampton 66.34% 41,312 28.75% 17,902 4.92% 3,063 62,277
Harrisonburg 56.77% 10,212 34.81% 6,262 8.41% 1,513 17,987
Hopewell 52.44% 4,724 43.13% 3,885 4.43% 399 9,008
Lexington 61.42% 1,514 31.08% 766 7.51% 185 2,465
Lynchburg 41.48% 14,792 50.43% 17,982 8.09% 2,883 35,657
Manassas 54.66% 8,423 38.63% 5,953 6.72% 1,035 15,411
Manassas Park 61.24% 3,204 33.12% 1,733 5.64% 295 5,232
Martinsville 59.81% 3,533 36.38% 2,149 3.81% 225 5,907
Newport News 60.31% 45,618 33.67% 25,468 6.02% 4,551 75,637
Norfolk 68.39% 57,023 25.85% 21,552 5.77% 4,810 83,385
Norton 26.23% 383 69.93% 1,021 3.84% 56 1,460
Petersburg 87.20% 12,021 10.53% 1,451 2.28% 314 13,786
Poquoson 22.31% 1,601 70.95% 5,092 6.74% 484 7,177
Portsmouth 65.87% 28,497 29.58% 12,795 4.55% 1,969 43,261
Radford 48.09% 2,925 43.37% 2,638 8.53% 519 6,082
Richmond 78.58% 81,259 15.07% 15,581 6.35% 6,566 103,406
Roanoke 56.47% 22,286 37.47% 14,789 6.06% 2,391 39,466
Salem 34.37% 4,202 59.11% 7,226 6.52% 797 12,225
Staunton 47.38% 5,333 45.61% 5,133 7.01% 789 11,255
Suffolk 53.84% 23,280 41.64% 18,006 4.52% 1,954 43,240
Virginia Beach 44.84% 91,032 48.38% 98,224 6.78% 13,763 203,019
Waynesboro 40.90% 3,764 52.16% 4,801 6.94% 639 9,204
Williamsburg 68.27% 5,206 25.24% 1,925 6.49% 495 7,626
Winchester 48.42% 5,164 44.91% 4,790 6.67% 711 10,665

By congressional district[edit]

Trump won 6 of 11 congressional districts.[13]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 53% 41% Rob Wittman
2nd 48% 45% Scott Rigell
Scott Taylor
3rd 32% 63% Robert C. Scott
4th 37% 58% Randy Forbes
Donald McEachin
5th 53% 42% Robert Hurt
Tom Garrett Jr.
6th 59% 35% Bob Goodlatte
7th 50% 44% Dave Brat
8th 21% 72% Don Beyer
9th 68% 27% Morgan Griffith
10th 42% 52% Barbara Comstock
11th 27% 66% Gerry Connolly

Counties and independent cities that swung from Democratic to Republican[edit]

Counties and independent cities that swung from Republican to Democratic[edit]

Democratic primary[edit]

The 108 delegates (95 pledged delegates and 13 super delegates) from Virginia to the Democratic National Convention were allocated in this way. Among the pledged delegates, 62 of them were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district. The 33 at-large delegates were then allocated based on the statewide popular vote.[14]

County results of the Virginia Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 504,741 64.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,370 35.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,930 0.50%
Uncommitted N/A
0
1
1
Total 785,041 100% 95 14 109
Source: The Green Papers, Virginia Department of Elections

Republican primary[edit]

The 49 delegates from Virginia to the Republican National Convention were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote.[15]

Virginia Republican primary, 2016

← 2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020 →
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state New York Florida Texas
Delegate count 17 16 8
Popular vote 356,840 327,918 171,150
Percentage 34.80% 31.98% 16.69%

  Governor John Kasich.jpg Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction.jpg
Candidate John Kasich Ben Carson
Home state Ohio Maryland
Delegate count 5 3
Popular vote 97,784 60,228
Percentage 9.54% 5.87%

Virginia Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Virginia results by county
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
Virginia Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
America Symbol.svg Donald Trump 356,840 34.80% 17 0 17
Marco Rubio 327,918 31.98% 16 0 16
Ted Cruz 171,150 16.69% 8 0 8
John Kasich 97,784 9.54% 5 0 5
Ben Carson 60,228 5.87% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 3,645 0.36% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 2,917 0.28% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 1,458 0.14% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,102 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 914 0.09% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 653 0.06% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 444 0.04% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 399 0.04% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 1,025,452 100.00% 49 0 49
Source: The Green Papers

Libertarian nomination[edit]

The 2016 Libertarian Party presidential ticket was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld for vice president. They earned those nominations at the Libertarian Party 2016 National Convention on Memorial Day weekend.[16]

Green primary[edit]

The Virginia Green Party held its primary from March 20 through April 3. Party members were able to vote online through an email ballot or through the mail.[17] On April 13, it was announced that Jill Stein had won with 76% of the vote. The state's four delegates were apportioned at the May 28 state meeting.[18]

Virginia Primary, April 3, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein 35 76% 3
Kent Mesplay 3 6% 1
William Kreml 2 4.1% -
Darryl Cherney 2 3.8% -
Sedinam Curry 1 1.7% -
Write-ins 3 8.4% -
Total 46 100.00% 4

Polling[edit]

State voting history[edit]

Virginia joined the Union in June 1788 and has participated in all elections from 1789 onwards, except 1864 and 1868 (due to its secession from the US due to the American Civil War). Since 1900, Virginia voted Democratic 54.17 percent of the time and Republican 45.83 percent of the time. From 1968 to 2004, Virginia voted for the Republican Party candidate. Then, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state voted for the Democratic Party. The same trend continued in the 2016 presidential elections.[19]

Clinton had several advantages in Virginia. The first was due in part to her landslide win in the Democratic primary against Senator Bernie Sanders. The second was Virginia has a significant number of African American voters, many of whom backed Clinton in the primary and both of President Barack Obama's wins in the state. The third was the state’s growing share of well-educated suburban voters, especially in the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C., who were moving away from the Republican Party in response to Trump being nominated for president. The fourth was Clinton's pick of the state's own US Senator, Tim Kaine, as her Vice Presidential running mate.[20]

While polls throughout the campaign showed Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by varying margins in Virginia, it was announced on October 13 that the Trump campaign was pulling its resources out of the state, likely ceding to Clinton what was perceived to be a critical battleground state. According to the Trump campaign, the reason for pulling out of Virginia was to compete in more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which were states he won.[21]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections.
  2. ^ a b "2016 Presidential General Election Data - National". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  3. ^ Nelson, Louis (December 1, 2016). "Tim Kaine: 'We have to be at the table' if there's a recount". Poliitico.com. Retrieved November 25, 2018.
  4. ^ "Historical U.S. Presidential Elections 1789-2016". www.270towin.com. Retrieved March 9, 2019.
  5. ^ "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push". Latimes.com.
  6. ^ David Chalian. "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". Cnn.com.
  7. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org.
  8. ^ "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". Nbcnews.com.
  9. ^ "ElectoralVote". Electoral-vote.com.
  10. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Realclearpolitics.com.
  11. ^ "Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Foxnews.com. November 7, 2016.
  12. ^ News, A. B. C. (November 8, 2016). "The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States". Abcnews.go.com.
  13. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
  14. ^ "Virginia Democratic Delegation 2016". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  15. ^ "Virginia Republican Delegation 2016". Thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved February 23, 2017.
  16. ^ "Libertarian Party Nominates Gov Gary Johnson Gov Bill Weld". Lpva.com. May 30, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  17. ^ "GPVA Presidential Preference Primary 2016". Green Party of Virginia. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
  18. ^ "GREEN PARTY OF VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". Green Party of Virginia. April 13, 2016. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
  19. ^ "Virginia Presidential Election 2016 Results LIVE Updates". Usaelections-2016.com. October 13, 2016.
  20. ^ Cohn, Nate (July 22, 2016). "If Tim Kaine Can Help Clinton in Virginia Even a Bit, It's a Big Deal". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 9, 2019.
  21. ^ "Trump's campaign is giving up on Virginia". Nbcnews.com.

External links[edit]